{"F": {"ts_code": "US.ZIM", "name": "以星航运", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "海运", "sw2": "海运", "sw3": "", "ind": "海运", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "20210128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.58, "pe_ttm": 24.852, "pb": 0.887, "dv_ttm": 4.37, "total_mv": 344445.205428, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [19.1], "rev_series": [69.0], "np_series": [4.8], "roe_series": [11.9], "rev_ttm": 69.0, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 16.6, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 48.2, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.2, "fix_assets": 71.9, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 24.2, "debt_ratio": 63.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 109.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -18.1, "np_yoy": -77.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 39.2, "ret_20": 6.2, "ret_60": 12.8, "ret_120": 10.6, "ret_250": 124.2, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 96.7, "eps": 3.98}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 42, "hard": 100, "bondness": 74}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 64%,但毛利率最新年报只有 19.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 63%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 19.1%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 48.2%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 19.1%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 64%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.9 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 124%,现价在 52 周高点的 97%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 13% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「海运」39 家中位:PE 7.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 26.5% / 固定资产占比 51% / 分红率 18%。", "以星航运:PE 比行业中位高 17.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点。"]}}