{"F": {"ts_code": "US.WCN", "name": "Waste Connections", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "废物管理", "sw2": "废物管理", "sw3": "", "ind": "废物管理", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 164.87, "pe_ttm": 39.823, "pb": 5.236, "dv_ttm": 0.83, "total_mv": 4147622.125828, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [42.4], "rev_series": [94.7], "np_series": [10.8], "roe_series": [13.4], "rev_ttm": 94.7, "np_ttm": 10.6, "ocf_ttm": 25.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 42.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.4, "fix_assets": 78.7, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 29.8, "debt_ratio": 61.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 33.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": 74.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": 3.9, "ret_120": -1.0, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 92.4, "eps": 4.17}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 53, "hard": 61, "bondness": 30}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 75%,PE TTM 39.8 倍,历史 PEG(PE ÷ 最新增速)0.53。", "经营现金流 25.1 亿(正),没有一致预期数据,风险在增速能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 38%、毛利率 42.4% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(废物管理:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.1%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 42.4%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 38%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 4% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「废物管理」21 家中位:PE 19.8 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 26.2% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 0%。", "Waste Connections:PE 比行业中位高 20.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}