{"F": {"ts_code": "US.UPS", "name": "联合包裹", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "综合货运与物流", "sw2": "综合货运与物流", "sw3": "", "ind": "综合货运与物流", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "19991110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 102.29, "pe_ttm": 19.013, "pb": 5.775, "dv_ttm": 6.41, "total_mv": 8702644.802277999, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [18.1], "rev_series": [886.6], "np_series": [55.7], "roe_series": [33.8], "rev_ttm": 886.6, "np_ttm": 45.7, "ocf_ttm": 88.7, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 10.2, "gm_median": 18.1, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.3, "roe_median": 33.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.8, "fix_assets": 392.2, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 119.3, "debt_ratio": 77.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 122.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.6, "np_yoy": -3.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 8.0, "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": 8.5, "ret_250": 29.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 87.5, "eps": 6.56}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 41, "hard": 88, "bondness": 78}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["重资产陷阱", "现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 -2.6%、净利润增速 -3.6%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 122%、股息率 6.4%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 78%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 6.4% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 19.0 倍 倒过来就是 5.3% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 18.1%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 10.2%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 18.1%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 55%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 1% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「综合货运与物流」32 家中位:PE 23.3 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 27%。", "联合包裹:PE 比行业中位低 4.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 38.2个百分点。"]}}