{"F": {"ts_code": "US.TX", "name": "特尔尼翁钢铁", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "钢", "sw2": "钢", "sw3": "", "ind": "钢", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.0, "pe_ttm": 16.26, "pb": 0.925, "dv_ttm": 3.79, "total_mv": 1138584.5324, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [15.1], "rev_series": [156.1], "np_series": [3.0], "roe_series": [3.6], "rev_ttm": 156.1, "np_ttm": 7.0, "ocf_ttm": 15.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 13.5, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 40.8, "fix_assets": 95.4, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 16.5, "debt_ratio": 31.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 62.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.6, "np_yoy": 74.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 56.3, "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 22.8, "ret_120": 56.5, "ret_250": 78.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 99.1, "eps": 2.2}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 70, "hard": 65, "bondness": 57}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "现金流红利", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 95 亿,占总资产 41%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:钢 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 13.5%,股息率 3.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 69%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 41%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 13.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 15.1%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 41%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.3 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 99%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 23% / 56%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「钢」20 家中位:PE 22.1 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 11.8% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 18%。", "特尔尼翁钢铁:PE 比行业中位低 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点。"]}}