{"F": {"ts_code": "US.TGT", "name": "塔吉特", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "折扣店", "sw2": "折扣店", "sw3": "", "ind": "折扣店", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 164.44, "pe_ttm": 17.058, "pb": 4.186, "dv_ttm": 2.77, "total_mv": 7470455.526784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [27.9], "rev_series": [1047.8], "np_series": [37.0], "roe_series": [24.0], "rev_ttm": 1047.8, "np_ttm": 43.9, "ocf_ttm": 87.2, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 11.7, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 24.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.0, "fix_assets": 322.3, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 83.5, "debt_ratio": 72.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 47.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.7, "np_yoy": -9.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 72.9, "ret_20": 10.7, "ret_60": 29.5, "ret_120": 42.9, "ret_250": 87.0, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 96.3, "eps": 8.13}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 46, "hard": 88, "bondness": 46}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 -1.7%、净利润增速 -9.4%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 47%、股息率 2.8%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 73%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 2.8% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 17.1 倍 倒过来就是 5.9% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 27.9%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 11.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 27.9%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 55%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.1 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 87%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 30% / 43%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「折扣店」9 家中位:PE 18.8 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.9% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 26%。", "塔吉特:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点。"]}}