{"F": {"ts_code": "US.TFPM", "name": "Triple Flag Precious Metals", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "其他贵金属和采矿", "sw2": "其他贵金属和采矿", "sw3": "", "ind": "其他贵金属和采矿", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.92, "pe_ttm": 16.96, "pb": 3.062, "dv_ttm": 0.68, "total_mv": 698762.2811520001, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [67.6], "rev_series": [3.9], "np_series": [2.4], "roe_series": [12.7], "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 67.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 61.7, "roe_median": 12.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 62.2, "fix_assets": 12.1, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 3.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 12.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 44.5, "np_yoy": 1139.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 2.6, "ret_20": 4.2, "ret_60": 26.6, "ret_120": -6.9, "ret_250": 18.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 81.6, "eps": 1.18}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 21}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 12 亿,占总资产 62%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:其他贵金属和采矿 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 5.7%,股息率 0.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 71%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 62%)和定价权(商品价格)。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 5.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 67.6%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 62%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.0 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 27% / -7%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「其他贵金属和采矿」17 家中位:PE 17.0 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 43.7% / 固定资产占比 44% / 分红率 3%。", "Triple Flag Precious Metals:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}