{"F": {"ts_code": "US.SW", "name": "Smurfit WestRock", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "包装与容器", "sw2": "包装与容器", "sw3": "", "ind": "包装与容器", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "20150624", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.83, "pe_ttm": 48.755, "pb": 1.332, "dv_ttm": 3.85, "total_mv": 2403888.4873639997, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [19.4], "rev_series": [311.8], "np_series": [7.0], "roe_series": [3.9], "rev_ttm": 311.8, "np_ttm": 5.0, "ocf_ttm": 33.0, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 13.7, "gm_median": 19.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.6, "fix_assets": 158.4, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 43.5, "debt_ratio": 59.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 188.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 47.7, "np_yoy": 119.1, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 22.0, "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": 18.7, "ret_120": 18.7, "ret_250": 2.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 89.0, "eps": 1.33}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 42, "hard": 57, "bondness": 71}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率最新年报只有 19.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 59%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 19.4%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 13.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 19.4%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 36%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 19% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「包装与容器」23 家中位:PE 17.2 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 20.9% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 49%。", "Smurfit WestRock:PE 比行业中位高 31.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}