{"F": {"ts_code": "US.STLD", "name": "Steel Dynamics", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "钢", "sw2": "钢", "sw3": "", "ind": "钢", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 242.06, "pe_ttm": 21.965, "pb": 3.683, "dv_ttm": 0.85, "total_mv": 3469399.698128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [13.2], "rev_series": [181.8], "np_series": [11.9], "roe_series": [13.3], "rev_ttm": 181.8, "np_ttm": 16.1, "ocf_ttm": 15.7, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 42.0, "fix_assets": 65.9, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 21.1, "debt_ratio": 45.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 19.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.6, "np_yoy": -23.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 43.6, "ret_20": -7.8, "ret_60": -9.6, "ret_120": 39.6, "ret_250": 82.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 84.0, "eps": 7.99}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 70, "hard": 67, "bondness": 25}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 66 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:钢 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 4.5%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 4.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 13.2%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 42%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 82%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -10% / 40%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「钢」20 家中位:PE 22.1 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 11.8% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 18%。", "Steel Dynamics:PE 比行业中位低 0.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}