{"F": {"ts_code": "US.SPH", "name": "Suburban Propane", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "受监管天然气", "sw2": "受监管天然气", "sw3": "", "ind": "受监管天然气", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.52, "pe_ttm": 9.077, "pb": 1.639, "dv_ttm": 7.42, "total_mv": 116880.102024, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [60.6], "rev_series": [14.3], "np_series": [1.1], "roe_series": [18.6], "rev_ttm": 14.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 15.5, "gm_median": 60.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 18.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.0, "fix_assets": 8.9, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 73.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 67.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": 43.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 45.0, "earn_yield": 11.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -0.7, "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -6.8, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": 2.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 86.8, "eps": 1.62}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": 62, "hard": 62, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 67%、股息率 7.4%、最新一年营收增速 7.9%、资产负债率 74%:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 39%、毛利率 60.6% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(受监管天然气:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 15.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 60.6%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 39%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.1 倍 粗算,约 45%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -7% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「受监管天然气」15 家中位:PE 16.8 / 股息率 3.6% / 毛利率 41.4% / 固定资产占比 48% / 分红率 56%。", "Suburban Propane:PE 比行业中位低 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}