{"F": {"ts_code": "US.SLVM", "name": "Sylvamo", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "纸及纸制品", "sw2": "纸及纸制品", "sw3": "", "ind": "纸及纸制品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "20210924", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.97, "pe_ttm": 19.235, "pb": 1.497, "dv_ttm": 6.26, "total_mv": 143017.594071, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [21.9], "rev_series": [33.5], "np_series": [1.3], "roe_series": [14.6], "rev_ttm": 33.5, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 14.6, "gm_median": 21.9, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 90.2, "fix_assets": 24.2, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 65.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 120.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.2, "np_yoy": -56.3, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -22.9, "ret_20": -12.4, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -12.4, "ret_250": -16.0, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 64.8, "eps": 3.24}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 43, "hard": 100, "bondness": 78}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 120%、股息率 6.3%、最新一年营收增速 -11.2%、资产负债率 65%:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 90%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 21.9%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 14.6%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 21.9%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 90%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -8% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「纸及纸制品」5 家中位:PE 13.1 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 8.8% / 固定资产占比 70% / 分红率 68%。", "Sylvamo:PE 比行业中位高 6.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.4个百分点。"]}}