{"F": {"ts_code": "US.SIM", "name": "Grupo Simec", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "钢", "sw2": "钢", "sw3": "", "ind": "钢", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "AMEX", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.6, "pe_ttm": 20.445, "pb": 1.129, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 408084.9773, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [24.8], "rev_series": [16.8], "np_series": [0.8], "roe_series": [2.5], "rev_ttm": 16.8, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 11.9, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 16.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": -83.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -10.3, "ret_20": -13.7, "ret_60": -11.5, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": 6.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 76.9, "eps": 0.576}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 70, "hard": 51, "bondness": 13}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 12 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:钢 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 2.3%,股息率 0.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 76%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 2.3%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 24.8%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 32%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.4 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -12% / -14%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「钢」20 家中位:PE 22.1 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 11.8% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 18%。", "Grupo Simec:PE 比行业中位低 1.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}