{"F": {"ts_code": "US.SAIA", "name": "Saia", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "货运", "sw2": "货运", "sw3": "", "ind": "货运", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 357.94, "pe_ttm": 34.55, "pb": 3.501, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 954792.4221, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [16.0], "rev_series": [32.3], "np_series": [2.6], "roe_series": [10.4], "rev_ttm": 32.3, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.6, "fix_assets": 20.8, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": -29.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 9.6, "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -22.8, "ret_120": 9.2, "ret_250": 14.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 72.4, "eps": 9.52}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 40, "hard": 100, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 63%,但毛利率最新年报只有 16.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 26%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 63%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 16.0%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.4%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 16.0%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 63%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.5 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -23% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「货运」16 家中位:PE 57.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 11.2% / 固定资产占比 44% / 分红率 61%。", "Saia:PE 比行业中位低 22.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.0个百分点。"]}}