{"F": {"ts_code": "US.PBR", "name": "巴西石油公司", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "综合油气", "sw2": "综合油气", "sw3": "", "ind": "综合油气", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.12, "pe_ttm": 5.08, "pb": 1.395, "dv_ttm": 5.72, "total_mv": 12966065.15656, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [47.6], "rev_series": [892.0], "np_series": [197.2], "roe_series": [29.2], "rev_ttm": 892.0, "np_ttm": 255.5, "ocf_ttm": 406.7, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 31.4, "gm_median": 47.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 22.1, "roe_median": 29.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 66.9, "fix_assets": 1351.0, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 460.4, "debt_ratio": 65.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 29.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.4, "np_yoy": 159.3, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 2.0, "earn_yield": 19.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 79.6, "ret_20": 15.3, "ret_60": 14.4, "ret_120": 11.0, "ret_250": 79.5, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 94.5, "eps": 3.04}, "S": {"duration": 12, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 53}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 1351 亿,占总资产 67%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:综合油气 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 31.4%,股息率 5.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 2%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 67%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 31.4%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 47.6%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 67%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 5.1 倍 粗算,约 2%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 14% / 11%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「综合油气」20 家中位:PE 12.3 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 67% / 分红率 33%。", "巴西石油公司:PE 比行业中位低 7.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}