{"F": {"ts_code": "US.PAA", "name": "Plains All American Pipeline", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "油气中游", "sw2": "油气中游", "sw3": "", "ind": "油气中游", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.7, "pe_ttm": 7.119, "pb": 1.636, "dv_ttm": 6.21, "total_mv": 1813305.8022, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [3.9], "rev_series": [442.6], "np_series": [17.7], "roe_series": [11.9], "rev_ttm": 442.6, "np_ttm": 25.5, "ocf_ttm": 29.8, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 16.4, "gm_median": 3.9, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 11.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 36.5, "fix_assets": 103.6, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 29.1, "debt_ratio": 56.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 44.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.5, "np_yoy": 58.9, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 30.0, "earn_yield": 14.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 51.4, "ret_20": 12.7, "ret_60": 15.0, "ret_120": 25.3, "ret_250": 62.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 99.0, "eps": 1.66}, "S": {"duration": 16, "pricing": 70, "hard": 58, "bondness": 58}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["商品定价", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 44%、股息率 6.2%、最新一年营收增速 -9.5%、资产负债率 57%:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 36%、毛利率 3.9% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(油气中游:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 16.4%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 3.9%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 36%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.1 倍 粗算,约 30%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 99%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 15% / 25%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「油气中游」57 家中位:PE 14.0 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 33.4% / 固定资产占比 48% / 分红率 58%。", "Plains All American Pipeline:PE 比行业中位低 6.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 29.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}