{"F": {"ts_code": "US.ORCL", "name": "甲骨文", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "软件基础设施", "sw2": "软件基础设施", "sw3": "", "ind": "软件基础设施", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "20130715", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 158.78, "pe_ttm": 27.234, "pb": 12.179, "dv_ttm": 1.26, "total_mv": 45736118.538, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [65.8], "rev_series": [673.6], "np_series": [170.9], "roe_series": [58.6], "rev_ttm": 673.6, "np_ttm": 169.8, "ocf_ttm": 319.8, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 65.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 25.4, "roe_median": 58.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.2, "fix_assets": 562.6, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 334.5, "debt_ratio": 83.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 34.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.3, "np_yoy": 37.3, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_20": 8.0, "ret_60": -20.8, "ret_120": 2.5, "ret_250": -32.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 46.5, "eps": 5.83}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 65, "hard": 42, "bondness": 32}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 26%)但有定价权:毛利率最新年报 65.8%、ROE 最新年报 58.6%。", "经营现金流/市值 7.0%,分红率 34%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 65.8%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 7.0%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 65.8%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 26%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.2 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -21% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「软件基础设施」176 家中位:PE 24.0 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 56.4% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 0%。", "甲骨文:PE 比行业中位高 3.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.8个百分点。"]}}