{"F": {"ts_code": "US.OGCP", "name": "Empire State Realty", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "办公室REITs", "sw2": "办公室REITs", "sw3": "", "ind": "办公室REITs", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "AMEX", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.3, "pe_ttm": 215.0, "pb": 0.673, "dv_ttm": 3.26, "total_mv": 120483.09965, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [52.5], "rev_series": [7.7], "np_series": [1.5], "roe_series": [3.8], "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 18.9, "gm_median": 52.5, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 19.0, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 0.1, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 59.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 701.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.0, "np_yoy": -9.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -31.3, "ret_20": -9.7, "ret_60": -24.8, "ret_120": -13.6, "ret_250": -38.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 53.5, "eps": 0.25}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 0, "bondness": 68}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 0.0%、净利润增速 -9.2%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 701%、股息率 3.3%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 59%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.3% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 215.0 倍 倒过来就是 0.5% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.5%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 18.9%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 52.5%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 0%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 215.0 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -25% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「办公室REITs」10 家中位:PE 214.5 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 700%。", "Empire State Realty:PE 比行业中位高 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}