{"F": {"ts_code": "US.MTN", "name": "Vail Resorts", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "度假村与赌场", "sw2": "度假村与赌场", "sw3": "", "ind": "度假村与赌场", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 134.96, "pe_ttm": 29.086, "pb": 8.716, "dv_ttm": 6.58, "total_mv": 480910.066896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [42.8], "rev_series": [29.6], "np_series": [3.0], "roe_series": [49.4], "rev_ttm": 29.6, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 42.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 49.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.2, "fix_assets": 27.6, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 8.7, "debt_ratio": 87.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 191.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": 20.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 5.0, "ret_20": -9.3, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": 5.3, "ret_250": -5.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 84.1, "eps": 7.53}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 53, "hard": 77, "bondness": 78}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 2.7%、净利润增速 20.6%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 191%、股息率 6.6%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 87%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 6.6% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 29.1 倍 倒过来就是 3.4% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 48%、毛利率 42.8% 两条都占,但所在行业(度假村与赌场)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 8.6%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 42.8%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 48%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 1% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「度假村与赌场」17 家中位:PE 20.2 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 49.6% / 固定资产占比 49% / 分红率 22%。", "Vail Resorts:PE 比行业中位高 8.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}