{"F": {"ts_code": "US.LUV", "name": "西南航空", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "航空服务", "sw2": "航空服务", "sw3": "", "ind": "航空服务", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "19770627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.62, "pe_ttm": 24.762, "pb": 2.736, "dv_ttm": 1.82, "total_mv": 1938242.892362, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [17.4], "rev_series": [280.6], "np_series": [4.4], "roe_series": [4.8], "rev_ttm": 280.6, "np_ttm": 8.4, "ocf_ttm": 25.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 13.0, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.6, "fix_assets": 180.9, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 22.4, "debt_ratio": 72.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 45.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.1, "np_yoy": -5.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -2.9, "ret_20": -15.4, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -0.6, "ret_250": 27.2, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 72.9, "eps": 0.79}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 41, "hard": 92, "bondness": 40}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率最新年报只有 17.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 72%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 17.4%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 13.0%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 17.4%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 58%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.8 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -3% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「航空服务」18 家中位:PE 11.4 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 20.9% / 固定资产占比 49% / 分红率 6%。", "西南航空:PE 比行业中位高 13.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}