{"F": {"ts_code": "US.IP", "name": "国际纸业", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "包装与容器", "sw2": "包装与容器", "sw3": "", "ind": "包装与容器", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.24, "pe_ttm": -5.476, "pb": 1.364, "dv_ttm": 4.97, "total_mv": 1972118.28898, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [29.6], "rev_series": [236.3], "np_series": [-35.2], "roe_series": [-30.6], "rev_ttm": 236.3, "np_ttm": -34.4, "ocf_ttm": 26.5, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 13.4, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -14.9, "roe_median": -30.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.9, "fix_assets": 145.4, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 49.3, "np_yoy": -731.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_20": -9.4, "ret_60": 18.3, "ret_120": 1.8, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 76.8, "eps": -6.95}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 77, "bondness": 43}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -34.4 亿;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 61%,有息负债 —,经营现金流/市值 13.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 29.6%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 13.4%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 29.6%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 48%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 18% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「包装与容器」23 家中位:PE 17.2 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 20.9% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 49%。", "国际纸业:PE 比行业中位低 22.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.4个百分点。"]}}