{"F": {"ts_code": "US.GHM", "name": "Graham", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "专用工业机械", "sw2": "专用工业机械", "sw3": "", "ind": "专用工业机械", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 87.78, "pe_ttm": 85.223, "pb": 5.36, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 103027.675674, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [23.5], "rev_series": [2.5], "np_series": [0.1], "roe_series": [9.6], "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 23.5, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 0.6, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 56.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.9, "np_yoy": 2.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 36.7, "ret_20": -21.4, "ret_60": -8.6, "ret_120": 9.6, "ret_250": 83.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 69.8, "eps": 1.12}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 44, "hard": 31, "bondness": 13}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 85.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率最新年报 23.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 0.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 23.5%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 19%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 84%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -21% / -9% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「专用工业机械」77 家中位:PE 31.6 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 35.5% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 20%。", "Graham:PE 比行业中位高 53.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点。"]}}