{"F": {"ts_code": "US.FWRG", "name": "First Watch Restaurant", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "餐厅", "sw2": "餐厅", "sw3": "", "ind": "餐厅", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": "20211001", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.05, "pe_ttm": 43.035, "pb": 1.172, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 74363.484175, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [19.2], "rev_series": [12.2], "np_series": [0.2], "roe_series": [3.2], "rev_ttm": 12.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 17.2, "gm_median": 19.2, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.3, "fix_assets": 6.2, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.3, "np_yoy": 2.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -20.1, "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": 9.7, "ret_120": 1.0, "ret_250": -34.0, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 64.0, "eps": 0.31}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 42, "hard": 61, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率最新年报只有 19.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 64%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 19.2%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 17.2%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 19.2%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 38%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.0 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 10% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「餐厅」53 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 28.8% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 17%。", "First Watch Restaurant:PE 比行业中位高 18.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点。"]}}