{"F": {"ts_code": "US.FRPT", "name": "Freshpet", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "包装食品", "sw2": "包装食品", "sw3": "", "ind": "包装食品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.24, "pe_ttm": 18.196, "pb": 2.727, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 337559.91177600005, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [40.8], "rev_series": [11.0], "np_series": [1.4], "roe_series": [12.3], "rev_ttm": 11.0, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.1, "gm_median": 40.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 12.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.9, "fix_assets": 7.2, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 32.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.0, "np_yoy": 196.5, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 15.3, "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 38.8, "ret_120": -6.8, "ret_250": 26.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 81.7, "eps": 2.64}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 52, "hard": 69, "bondness": 13}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 7 亿,占总资产 43%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率最新年报 40.8%。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 6.1%,股息率 0.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 73%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 43%)和定价权(毛利率 40.8% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.1%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 40.8%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 43%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.2 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 39% / -7%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「包装食品」64 家中位:PE 15.1 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 28.4% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 0%。", "Freshpet:PE 比行业中位高 3.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.1个百分点。"]}}