{"F": {"ts_code": "US.FERG", "name": "Ferguson", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "工业分销", "sw2": "工业分销", "sw3": "", "ind": "工业分销", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 228.41, "pe_ttm": 49.332, "pb": 7.125, "dv_ttm": 1.48, "total_mv": 4418653.508997, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [30.6], "rev_series": [128.3], "np_series": [7.9], "roe_series": [32.4], "rev_ttm": 128.3, "np_ttm": 11.2, "ocf_ttm": 8.9, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 30.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 32.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.3, "fix_assets": 25.7, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 12.4, "debt_ratio": 65.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 73.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -56.7, "np_yoy": -54.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 4.2, "ret_20": -10.7, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": 3.0, "ret_250": -2.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 85.0, "eps": 4.01}, "S": {"duration": 71, "pricing": 47, "hard": 24, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 49.3 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率最新年报 30.6%、固定资产占比 15%、资产负债率 66%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.6%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 2.0%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 30.6%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 15%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 49.3 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 2% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「工业分销」25 家中位:PE 27.6 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 29.4% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 18%。", "Ferguson:PE 比行业中位高 21.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}