{"F": {"ts_code": "US.FE", "name": "第一能源", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "受监管电力", "sw2": "受监管电力", "sw3": "", "ind": "受监管电力", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.77, "pe_ttm": 25.01, "pb": 2.092, "dv_ttm": 3.85, "total_mv": 2706298.961964, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [65.3], "rev_series": [150.9], "np_series": [12.7], "roe_series": [8.2], "rev_ttm": 150.9, "np_ttm": 10.8, "ocf_ttm": 31.2, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": 65.3, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.4, "fix_assets": 288.1, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 42.5, "debt_ratio": 75.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 96.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.0, "np_yoy": 12.8, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 7.6, "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": 1.7, "ret_120": -7.8, "ret_250": 12.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 91.2, "eps": 1.76}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 65, "hard": 85, "bondness": 70}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 12.0%、净利润增速 12.8%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 96%、股息率 3.9%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 75%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.9% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 25.0 倍 倒过来就是 4.0% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 53%、毛利率 65.3% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(受监管电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 11.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 65.3%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 53%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.0 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 2% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「受监管电力」43 家中位:PE 19.0 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 45.0% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 66%。", "第一能源:PE 比行业中位高 6.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}