{"F": {"ts_code": "US.E", "name": "埃尼石油", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "综合油气", "sw2": "综合油气", "sw3": "", "ind": "综合油气", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.58, "pe_ttm": 13.717, "pb": 1.275, "dv_ttm": 4.48, "total_mv": 7710502.988478, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [9.4], "rev_series": [965.1], "np_series": [32.4], "roe_series": [4.8], "rev_ttm": 965.1, "np_ttm": 58.0, "ocf_ttm": 152.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 19.7, "gm_median": 9.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 68.0, "fix_assets": 1067.8, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 250.2, "debt_ratio": 61.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 61.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.4, "np_yoy": 12.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 64.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 44.4, "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": 6.2, "ret_250": 63.6, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 92.8, "eps": 1.814}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 61}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "商品定价", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 1068 亿,占总资产 68%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:综合油气 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 19.7%,股息率 4.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 64%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 68%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 19.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 9.4%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 68%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.7 倍 粗算,约 64%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -1% / 6%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「综合油气」20 家中位:PE 12.3 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 67% / 分红率 33%。", "埃尼石油:PE 比行业中位高 1.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}