{"F": {"ts_code": "US.CWST", "name": "Casella Waste Systems", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "废物管理", "sw2": "废物管理", "sw3": "", "ind": "废物管理", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 93.53, "pe_ttm": 1169.125, "pb": 3.767, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 595225.350238, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [33.8], "rev_series": [18.4], "np_series": [0.1], "roe_series": [0.5], "rev_ttm": 18.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 33.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.8, "fix_assets": 13.6, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 52.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": -41.9, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -4.5, "ret_20": 4.6, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": 5.7, "ret_250": 0.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 86.6, "eps": 0.12}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 67, "bondness": 13}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 1169.1 倍、股息率 0.0%、毛利率最新年报 33.8%、固定资产占比 42%、资产负债率 52%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 42%、毛利率 33.8% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(废物管理:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 5.9%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 33.8%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 42%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1169.1 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 3% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「废物管理」21 家中位:PE 19.8 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 26.2% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 0%。", "Casella Waste Systems:PE 比行业中位高 1149.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点。"]}}