{"F": {"ts_code": "US.CSX", "name": "CSX运输", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "铁路运输", "sw2": "铁路运输", "sw3": "", "ind": "铁路运输", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 49.41, "pe_ttm": 28.56, "pb": 6.499, "dv_ttm": 1.09, "total_mv": 9153078.564897, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [33.2], "rev_series": [140.9], "np_series": [28.9], "roe_series": [22.5], "rev_ttm": 140.9, "np_ttm": 32.2, "ocf_ttm": 53.2, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 20.5, "roe_median": 22.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.9, "fix_assets": 267.4, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 62.9, "debt_ratio": 69.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": -16.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 37.5, "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": 24.9, "ret_250": 54.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 92.4, "eps": 1.54}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 49, "hard": 99, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.6 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率最新年报 33.2%、固定资产占比 62%、资产负债率 70%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 62%、毛利率 33.2% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(铁路运输:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 5.8%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 33.2%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 62%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.6 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 7% / 25%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「铁路运输」12 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 33.7% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 30%。", "CSX运输:PE 比行业中位高 0.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.8个百分点。"]}}