{"F": {"ts_code": "US.CSAN", "name": "Cosan", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "油气炼制与销售", "sw2": "油气炼制与销售", "sw3": "", "ind": "油气炼制与销售", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.9, "pe_ttm": -1.255, "pb": 2.938, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 285966.56864, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [32.6], "rev_series": [73.8], "np_series": [-18.6], "roe_series": [-120.0], "rev_ttm": 73.8, "np_ttm": -16.4, "ocf_ttm": 24.9, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 86.9, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -25.2, "roe_median": -120.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.6, "fix_assets": 46.5, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 77.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.7, "np_yoy": -40.9, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": 10.3, "ret_120": -30.6, "ret_250": -47.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 48.3, "eps": -3.086}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 31, "bondness": 13}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -16.4 亿;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 77%,有息负债 —,经营现金流/市值 86.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.6%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 86.9%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 32.6%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 20%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 10% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「油气炼制与销售」19 家中位:PE 15.0 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 6.6% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 28%。", "Cosan:PE 比行业中位低 16.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 26.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}