{"F": {"ts_code": "US.CRGY", "name": "Crescent Energy", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "油气勘探与开发", "sw2": "油气勘探与开发", "sw3": "", "ind": "油气勘探与开发", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "20211208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.77, "pe_ttm": 172.125, "pb": 0.883, "dv_ttm": 3.49, "total_mv": 454965.889392, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [78.6], "rev_series": [35.8], "np_series": [1.7], "roe_series": [3.2], "rev_ttm": 35.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 19.6, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 43.1, "gm_median": 78.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 60.0, "fix_assets": 64.8, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 16.7, "debt_ratio": 58.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 601.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 22.1, "np_yoy": 221.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 69.0, "ret_20": 20.2, "ret_60": 18.8, "ret_120": 18.9, "ret_250": 72.2, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 94.7, "eps": 0.54}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 70, "hard": 96, "bondness": 69}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 65 亿,占总资产 60%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:油气勘探与开发 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 43.1%,股息率 3.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 97%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 60%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 43.1%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 78.6%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 60%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 172.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 19% / 19%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「油气勘探与开发」72 家中位:PE 11.4 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 39.8% / 固定资产占比 78% / 分红率 23%。", "Crescent Energy:PE 比行业中位高 160.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 38.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.0个百分点。"]}}