{"F": {"ts_code": "US.COST", "name": "好市多", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "折扣店", "sw2": "折扣店", "sw3": "", "ind": "折扣店", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 915.74, "pe_ttm": 46.063, "pb": 12.119, "dv_ttm": 0.59, "total_mv": 40611127.997496, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [12.8], "rev_series": [2752.3], "np_series": [81.0], "roe_series": [30.7], "rev_ttm": 2752.3, "np_ttm": 88.4, "ocf_ttm": 150.0, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 30.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 257.8, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 134.0, "debt_ratio": 62.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 27.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 8.2, "np_yoy": 9.9, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 6.7, "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -6.7, "ret_120": -8.3, "ret_250": -5.2, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 83.6, "eps": 18.21}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 38, "hard": 56, "bondness": 26}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率最新年报只有 12.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 62%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 12.8%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 3.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 12.8%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 35%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.1 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -7% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「折扣店」9 家中位:PE 18.8 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.9% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 26%。", "好市多:PE 比行业中位高 27.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}