{"F": {"ts_code": "US.CNH", "name": "凯斯纽", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "农业和重型机械", "sw2": "农业和重型机械", "sw3": "", "ind": "农业和重型机械", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.4, "pe_ttm": 55.384, "pb": 2.298, "dv_ttm": 0.69, "total_mv": 1782325.3795200002, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [31.5], "rev_series": [180.9], "np_series": [5.0], "roe_series": [6.6], "rev_ttm": 180.9, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 17.8, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 31.5, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.8, "fix_assets": 41.9, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 27.3, "debt_ratio": 81.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 38.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.8, "np_yoy": -59.9, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 57.7, "ret_20": 32.0, "ret_60": 41.5, "ret_120": 38.2, "ret_250": 26.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 99.6, "eps": 0.41}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 48, "hard": 16, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.4 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率最新年报 31.5%、固定资产占比 10%、资产负债率 82%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.5%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 10.0%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 31.5%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 10%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 32% / 42% / 38%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「农业和重型机械」26 家中位:PE 26.3 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.5% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 26%。", "凯斯纽:PE 比行业中位高 29.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}