{"F": {"ts_code": "US.CMCL", "name": "Caledonia Mining", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "黄金", "sw2": "黄金", "sw3": "", "ind": "黄金", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "AMEX", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.33, "pe_ttm": 7.544, "pb": 1.872, "dv_ttm": 2.13, "total_mv": 50909.263007, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [51.2], "rev_series": [2.7], "np_series": [0.7], "roe_series": [23.1], "rev_ttm": 2.7, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 16.3, "gm_median": 51.2, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 25.2, "roe_median": 23.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 51.1, "fix_assets": 1.9, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 31.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 16.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 46.2, "np_yoy": 192.8, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 34.0, "earn_yield": 13.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 2.4, "ret_20": 21.7, "ret_60": 41.2, "ret_120": 4.9, "ret_250": -11.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 69.5, "eps": 2.83}, "S": {"duration": 17, "pricing": 70, "hard": 82, "bondness": 31}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 2 亿,占总资产 51%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:黄金 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 16.3%,股息率 2.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 34%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 51%)和定价权(商品价格)。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 16.3%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 51.2%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 51%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.5 倍 粗算,约 34%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 41% / 5%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「黄金」53 家中位:PE 14.2 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 50.2% / 固定资产占比 55% / 分红率 6%。", "Caledonia Mining:PE 比行业中位低 6.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点。"]}}