{"F": {"ts_code": "US.CELH", "name": "Celsius Holdings", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "非酒精饮料", "sw2": "非酒精饮料", "sw3": "", "ind": "非酒精饮料", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.66, "pe_ttm": 127.75, "pb": 6.466, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 775805.454102, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [50.4], "rev_series": [25.2], "np_series": [1.1], "roe_series": [8.1], "rev_ttm": 25.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.6, "gm_median": 50.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.3, "fix_assets": 0.4, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 42.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 85.5, "np_yoy": -25.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -33.0, "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": -29.7, "ret_250": -44.9, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 45.9, "eps": 0.25}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 57, "hard": 2, "bondness": 13}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 127.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.4%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.6%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 50.4%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 1%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 127.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 8% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「非酒精饮料」19 家中位:PE 26.4 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 19%。", "Celsius Holdings:PE 比行业中位高 101.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.2个百分点。"]}}