{"F": {"ts_code": "US.BTU", "name": "Peabody Energy", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "动力煤", "sw2": "动力煤", "sw3": "", "ind": "动力煤", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.85, "pe_ttm": -19.233, "pb": 1.082, "dv_ttm": 1.04, "total_mv": 351681.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [13.6], "rev_series": [38.6], "np_series": [-0.4], "roe_series": [-1.5], "rev_ttm": 38.6, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -1.1, "roe_median": -1.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 49.0, "fix_assets": 28.8, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 38.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.9, "np_yoy": -110.5, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_20": 21.5, "ret_60": 10.2, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": 58.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 70.6, "eps": -0.43}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 78, "bondness": 19}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.8 亿;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 38%,有息负债 —,经营现金流/市值 6.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 49%、毛利率 13.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(动力煤)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.2%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 13.6%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 49%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 10% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「动力煤」5 家中位:PE 16.4 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 13.8% / 固定资产占比 49% / 分红率 41%。", "Peabody Energy:PE 比行业中位低 35.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}