{"F": {"ts_code": "US.BROS", "name": "Dutch Bros", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "餐厅", "sw2": "餐厅", "sw3": "", "ind": "餐厅", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": "20210915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 46.58, "pe_ttm": 64.694, "pb": 8.054, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 642528.237084, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [25.9], "rev_series": [16.4], "np_series": [1.2], "roe_series": [13.1], "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.7, "fix_assets": 8.7, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 70.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.9, "np_yoy": 76.5, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_20": -12.1, "ret_60": -22.7, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 62.9, "eps": 0.64}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 45, "hard": 51, "bondness": 13}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 76%,PE TTM 64.7 倍,历史 PEG(PE ÷ 最新增速)0.85。", "经营现金流 3.7 亿(正),没有一致预期数据,风险在增速能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 25.9%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 5.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 25.9%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 32%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -23% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「餐厅」53 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 28.8% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 17%。", "Dutch Bros:PE 比行业中位高 40.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点。"]}}