{"F": {"ts_code": "US.AWR", "name": "美国州立水务", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "受监管自来水", "sw2": "受监管自来水", "sw3": "", "ind": "受监管自来水", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 88.53, "pe_ttm": 24.188, "pb": 3.128, "dv_ttm": 2.28, "total_mv": 350894.196978, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [74.4], "rev_series": [6.6], "np_series": [1.3], "roe_series": [13.2], "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.7, "gm_median": 74.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 19.8, "roe_median": 13.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.8, "fix_assets": 14.6, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 61.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 55.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.5, "np_yoy": 9.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 24.6, "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": 13.4, "ret_120": 19.1, "ret_250": 23.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 96.5, "eps": 3.37}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 69, "hard": 89, "bondness": 46}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.2 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率最新年报 74.4%、固定资产占比 56%、资产负债率 62%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 56%、毛利率 74.4% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(受监管自来水:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 74.4%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 56%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 13% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「受监管自来水」12 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.6% / 毛利率 59.2% / 固定资产占比 52% / 分红率 56%。", "美国州立水务:PE 比行业中位高 1.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点。"]}}