{"F": {"ts_code": "US.AVD", "name": "美国先锋", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "农业投入品", "sw2": "农业投入品", "sw3": "", "ind": "农业投入品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NYSE", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.33, "pe_ttm": -1.219, "pb": 0.378, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 6873.647256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [28.6], "rev_series": [5.2], "np_series": [-0.5], "roe_series": [-23.4], "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": -60.8, "gm_median": 28.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -9.7, "roe_median": -23.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 1.0, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": -0.1, "debt_ratio": 67.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.9, "np_yoy": 60.5, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -39.0, "ret_20": -3.3, "ret_60": -20.5, "ret_120": -42.8, "ret_250": -59.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 39.4, "eps": -1.75}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 26, "bondness": 13}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 68%,有息负债 —,经营现金流/市值 -60.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 28.6%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 -60.8%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 28.6%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 16%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -59%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -20% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「农业投入品」13 家中位:PE 18.3 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 30.6% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 46%。", "美国先锋:PE 比行业中位低 19.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 29.9个百分点。"]}}