{"F": {"ts_code": "US.AEP", "name": "美国电力", "mkt": "US", "ccy": "美元", "sw1": "受监管电力", "sw2": "受监管电力", "sw3": "", "ind": "受监管电力", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "NASDAQ", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 124.5, "pe_ttm": 21.577, "pb": 2.112, "dv_ttm": 3.04, "total_mv": 6777747.0324, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [61.0], "rev_series": [218.8], "np_series": [37.0], "roe_series": [12.3], "rev_ttm": 218.8, "np_ttm": 31.4, "ocf_ttm": 76.9, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 61.0, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 16.9, "roe_median": 12.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.0, "fix_assets": 576.1, "hard_note": "PP&E 毛额 × 0.5 近似净额", "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 92.4, "debt_ratio": 71.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 66.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.9, "np_yoy": 24.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 10.4, "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -2.4, "ret_120": -5.8, "ret_250": 19.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 89.2, "eps": 6.66}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 62, "hard": 85, "bondness": 54}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["成长兑现", "现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 10.9%、净利润增速 24.2%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 66%、股息率 3.0%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 72%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.0% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 21.6 倍 倒过来就是 4.6% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 53%、毛利率 61.0% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(受监管电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 11.4%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 61.0%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 53%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.6 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -2% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「受监管电力」43 家中位:PE 19.0 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 45.0% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 66%。", "美国电力:PE 比行业中位高 2.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点。"]}}