{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.09696", "name": "天齐锂业", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "其他金属及矿物", "sw2": "其他金属及矿物", "sw3": "", "ind": "其他金属及矿物", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.5, "pe_ttm": 11.139, "pb": 1.044, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 5910212.9676, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [39.3], "rev_series": [114.8], "np_series": [33.3], "roe_series": [1.1], "rev_ttm": 114.8, "np_ttm": 53.1, "ocf_ttm": 38.5, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 39.3, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 29.0, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 34.8, "fix_assets": 272.6, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 54.1, "debt_ratio": 27.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.2, "np_yoy": 456.0, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 9.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -32.4, "ret_20": -3.6, "ret_60": -21.2, "ret_120": -21.9, "ret_250": -13.6, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 49.9, "eps": 0.296}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 70, "hard": 56, "bondness": 13}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 273 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:其他金属及矿物 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 6.5%,股息率 0.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 55%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 39.3%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 35%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.1 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -21% / -22%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「其他金属及矿物」26 家中位:PE 11.1 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 7%。", "天齐锂业:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}