{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.06869", "name": "长飞光纤光缆", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "电讯网路基建设施", "sw2": "电讯网路基建设施", "sw3": "", "ind": "电讯网路基建设施", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 159.4, "pe_ttm": 33.298, "pb": 7.004, "dv_ttm": 0.21, "total_mv": 13196807.42152, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [30.7], "rev_series": [158.5], "np_series": [9.8], "roe_series": [6.5], "rev_ttm": 158.5, "np_ttm": 39.6, "ocf_ttm": 31.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.8, "fix_assets": 100.4, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 19.4, "debt_ratio": 51.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 7.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 22.1, "np_yoy": 58.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 210.4, "ret_20": 28.4, "ret_60": -31.0, "ret_120": -2.6, "ret_250": 186.6, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 52.3, "eps": 1.088}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 47, "hard": 43, "bondness": 17}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 59%,PE TTM 33.3 倍,历史 PEG(PE ÷ 最新增速)0.57。", "经营现金流 31.4 亿(正),没有一致预期数据,风险在增速能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.7%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 2.4%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 30.7%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 27%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.3 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 187%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / -31% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「电讯网路基建设施」16 家中位:PE 28.7 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 7%。", "长飞光纤光缆:PE 比行业中位高 4.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.4个百分点。"]}}