{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.06865", "name": "福莱特玻璃", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "新能源物料", "sw2": "新能源物料", "sw3": "", "ind": "新能源物料", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.585, "pe_ttm": 37.414, "pb": 0.629, "dv_ttm": 2.61, "total_mv": 1534804.817304, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [16.9], "rev_series": [173.1], "np_series": [11.0], "roe_series": [4.5], "rev_ttm": 173.1, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 32.5, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 21.2, "gm_median": 16.9, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 39.8, "fix_assets": 186.6, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 19.9, "debt_ratio": 46.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 98.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.9, "np_yoy": 2.1, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -28.9, "ret_20": -13.2, "ret_60": -15.8, "ret_120": -32.9, "ret_250": -35.5, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 48.1, "eps": 0.466}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 70, "hard": 64, "bondness": 63}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 187 亿,占总资产 40%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:新能源物料 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 21.2%,股息率 2.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 87%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 40%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 21.2%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 16.9%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 40%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -16% / -33%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「新能源物料」15 家中位:PE 82.4 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 9.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 59%。", "福莱特玻璃:PE 比行业中位低 45.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.5个百分点。"]}}