{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.06810", "name": "商米科技-W", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "电脑及周边器材", "sw2": "电脑及周边器材", "sw3": "", "ind": "电脑及周边器材", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260429", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 59.6, "pe_ttm": 152.429, "pb": 7.093, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 2399655.728, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [31.3], "rev_series": [42.4], "np_series": [2.5], "roe_series": [11.5], "rev_ttm": 42.4, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": -8.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": -3.5, "gm_median": 31.3, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.7, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.3, "np_yoy": 28.5, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 139.7, "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": -28.1, "ret_120": 139.7, "ret_250": 139.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 59.7, "eps": 0.612}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 48, "hard": 1, "bondness": 13}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 152.4 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.3%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 -3.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 31.3%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 1%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 152.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 140%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -28% / 140%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「电脑及周边器材」21 家中位:PE 14.8 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 15.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 0%。", "商米科技-W:PE 比行业中位高 137.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}