{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.03931", "name": "中创新航", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "能源储存装置", "sw2": "能源储存装置", "sw3": "", "ind": "能源储存装置", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221006", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.17, "pe_ttm": 13.594, "pb": 0.703, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 3043042.290186, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [16.7], "rev_series": [493.8], "np_series": [23.3], "roe_series": [4.2], "rev_ttm": 493.8, "np_ttm": 22.1, "ocf_ttm": 85.0, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 27.9, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 63.7, "fix_assets": 949.8, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 34.3, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 67.3, "np_yoy": 159.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -31.6, "ret_20": -6.5, "ret_60": -32.2, "ret_120": -41.1, "ret_250": -19.9, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 43.7, "eps": 0.922}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 40, "hard": 100, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 64%,但毛利率最新年报只有 16.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 64%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 16.7%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 27.9%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 16.7%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 64%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.6 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -32% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「能源储存装置」16 家中位:PE 15.9 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 0%。", "中创新航:PE 比行业中位低 2.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 43.1个百分点。"]}}