{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.03778", "name": "中国织材控股", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "纺织品及布料", "sw2": "纺织品及布料", "sw3": "", "ind": "纺织品及布料", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.87, "pe_ttm": 21.908, "pb": 0.47, "dv_ttm": 5.23, "total_mv": 35942.445, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [6.6], "rev_series": [12.2], "np_series": [-0.1], "roe_series": [-1.0], "rev_ttm": 12.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 27.8, "gm_median": 6.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -0.6, "roe_median": -1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.7, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 51.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 115.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.7, "np_yoy": 40.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -4.3, "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -5.0, "ret_250": -7.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 83.2, "eps": -0.059}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 35, "hard": 92, "bondness": 78}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率最新年报只有 6.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 52%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 6.6%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 27.8%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 6.6%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 58%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.9 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 2% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「纺织品及布料」13 家中位:PE 7.6 / 股息率 5.0% / 毛利率 13.5% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 56%。", "中国织材控股:PE 比行业中位高 14.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.2个百分点。"]}}