{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.03738", "name": "阜博集团", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "应用软件", "sw2": "应用软件", "sw3": "", "ind": "应用软件", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180104", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.475, "pe_ttm": 31.306, "pb": 2.492, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 901020.87801, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [44.8], "rev_series": [28.7], "np_series": [2.1], "roe_series": [7.5], "rev_ttm": 28.7, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 44.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.2, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 45.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.6, "np_yoy": 33.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -15.4, "ret_20": 35.7, "ret_60": 34.2, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -45.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 49.7, "eps": 0.077}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 54, "hard": 2, "bondness": 13}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 34%,PE TTM 31.3 倍,历史 PEG(PE ÷ 最新增速)0.93。", "经营现金流 0.6 亿(正),没有一致预期数据,风险在增速能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.8%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 0.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 44.8%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 1%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.3 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 36% / 34% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「应用软件」34 家中位:PE 18.4 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 48.9% / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 3%。", "阜博集团:PE 比行业中位高 12.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}