{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.03363", "name": "正业国际", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "纸及纸制品", "sw2": "纸及纸制品", "sw3": "", "ind": "纸及纸制品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110603", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 0.365, "pe_ttm": 4.345, "pb": 0.137, "dv_ttm": 3.01, "total_mv": 18250.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [10.8], "rev_series": [28.0], "np_series": [0.2], "roe_series": [1.3], "rev_ttm": 28.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": -127.7, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.2, "fix_assets": 16.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 55.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 13.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 8.0, "np_yoy": -55.1, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 0.0, "earn_yield": 23.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 4.6, "ret_20": 9.0, "ret_60": 26.4, "ret_120": 4.6, "ret_250": -2.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 87.2, "eps": 0.032}, "S": {"duration": 10, "pricing": 37, "hard": 77, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率最新年报只有 10.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 55%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 10.8%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 -127.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 10.8%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 48%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 4.3 倍 粗算,约 0%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 26% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「纸及纸制品」9 家中位:PE 7.6 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 11.5% / 固定资产占比 54% / 分红率 0%。", "正业国际:PE 比行业中位低 3.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}