{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02715", "name": "埃斯顿", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "重型机械", "sw2": "重型机械", "sw3": "", "ind": "重型机械", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.08, "pe_ttm": 67.848, "pb": 4.127, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 1557615.0132239999, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [29.0], "rev_series": [54.4], "np_series": [0.5], "roe_series": [2.2], "rev_ttm": 54.4, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 7.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 29.0, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.9, "fix_assets": 17.1, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 78.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 27.5, "np_yoy": 105.3, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 4.7, "ret_20": -15.0, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": 14.4, "ret_250": 4.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 61.4, "eps": 0.047}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 46, "hard": 25, "bondness": 13}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 67.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率最新年报 29.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 4.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 29.0%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 16%。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -9% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「重型机械」17 家中位:PE 12.7 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 32%。", "埃斯顿:PE 比行业中位高 55.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}