{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02638", "name": "港灯-SS", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "常规电力", "sw2": "常规电力", "sw3": "", "ind": "常规电力", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.285, "pe_ttm": 17.605, "pb": 1.13, "dv_ttm": 5.09, "total_mv": 5553551.7, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [50.2], "rev_series": [121.2], "np_series": [30.8], "roe_series": [6.4], "rev_ttm": 121.2, "np_ttm": 33.7, "ocf_ttm": 71.7, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 12.9, "gm_median": 50.2, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 25.4, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 63.6, "fix_assets": 753.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 50.5, "debt_ratio": 58.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 90.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.6, "np_yoy": -7.8, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 5.1, "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": -5.1, "ret_250": 11.0, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 92.7, "eps": 0.356}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 57, "hard": 100, "bondness": 74}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 0.6%、净利润增速 -7.8%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 90%、股息率 5.1%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 58%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 5.1% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 17.6 倍 倒过来就是 5.7% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 64%、毛利率 50.2% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(常规电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 12.9%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 50.2%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 64%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.6 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 1% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「常规电力」11 家中位:PE 7.2 / 股息率 5.1% / 毛利率 15.2% / 固定资产占比 63% / 分红率 52%。", "港灯-SS:PE 比行业中位高 10.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 35.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}