{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02510", "name": "德翔海运", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "航运及港口", "sw2": "航运及港口", "sw3": "", "ind": "航运及港口", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20241101", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.94, "pe_ttm": 7.938, "pb": 1.353, "dv_ttm": 9.51, "total_mv": 2321053.214, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [19.7], "rev_series": [100.0], "np_series": [25.6], "roe_series": [16.1], "rev_ttm": 100.0, "np_ttm": 29.0, "ocf_ttm": 35.2, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 25.6, "roe_median": 16.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.2, "fix_assets": 123.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 25.9, "debt_ratio": 13.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.0, "np_yoy": -10.0, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 37.0, "earn_yield": 12.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 100.5, "ret_20": 68.3, "ret_60": 83.8, "ret_120": 70.1, "ret_250": 79.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 99.1, "eps": 1.537}, "S": {"duration": 18, "pricing": 42, "hard": 100, "bondness": 69}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 -4.0%、净利润增速 -10.0%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 75%、股息率 9.5%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 14%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 9.5% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 7.9 倍 倒过来就是 12.6% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 19.7%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 15.2%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 19.7%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 66%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.9 倍 粗算,约 37%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 99%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 68% / 84% / 70%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「航运及港口」30 家中位:PE 8.9 / 股息率 4.3% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 41% / 分红率 34%。", "德翔海运:PE 比行业中位低 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.5个百分点。"]}}