{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02499", "name": "佛朗斯股份", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "工业零件及器材", "sw2": "工业零件及器材", "sw3": "", "ind": "工业零件及器材", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.7, "pe_ttm": 21.111, "pb": 1.3, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 206638.00512000002, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [30.0], "rev_series": [19.4], "np_series": [0.9], "roe_series": [6.8], "rev_ttm": 19.4, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 17.7, "gm_median": 30.0, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.3, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 69.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.5, "np_yoy": -15.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -1.4, "ret_250": 6.5, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 91.5, "eps": 0.251}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 47, "hard": 52, "bondness": 13}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 14 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率最新年报 30.0%。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 17.7%,股息率 0.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 76%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 30.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 17.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 30.0%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 32%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.1 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -2% / -1%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「工业零件及器材」73 家中位:PE 15.3 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 25%。", "佛朗斯股份:PE 比行业中位高 5.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.9个百分点。"]}}